National Election Survey Deliberation Commission

• Background

  There has been a rapid increase in the number of ways for voters to gain election information and details about election polling. For example, there are increasing ways for voters to get information on polls from print media, on the internet and through research organizations. Knowledge about public opinion can help voters judge candidates and make a decision on how they will vote. However, there is a concern that polls can be distorted in a way that leads to a negative impact on a voter's decision and therefore influence unfairly the results of an election.
  
  There are two opposing theories on the effects of election polls on voters. Firstly, a ‘Bandwagon Effect’ occurs when voters are encouraged to back a candidate who is polling ahead of others. Those who try to manipulate the results of an election survey in a favorable way towards their desired candidate or party believe in this effect. On the contrary, there may also be an ‘Underdog Effect’ which is when voters are attracted to a losing candidate out of sympathy. The former is generally considered more persuasive. In addition, another theory regarding the effect of polling on election results is the creation of complacency among voters. According to this theory, polling that shows a particular candidate or party with a large lead can cause some voters to consider voting a waste of time since they believe the result is a foregone conclusion, depressing turnout.
  
  Therefore, the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission (NESDC) was established under the NEC in 2014 to secure the fairness and credibility of election polls. The NESDC, created under the NEC and which has bodies at each provincial level election commission, is tasked with ensuring election polls are carried out in a manner that is allowed under the related acts of the Public Official Election Act.

• Mission
  • Investigate Illegal Election Polls

    The NESDC is tasked with ensuring that all election polls adhere to the rules prescribed in the Public Official Election Act. Therefore, it has the authority to gain access to sites related to any poll-related crimes, to demand the submission of any relevant materials, to summon those related to any violation, to take measures on the spot to prevent crimes, and to take possession of evidence from the crime scene.

  • Register Election Poll Agencies

    Any agency or organization which wishes to conduct election polls and to release and report the results must register with the NESDC in advance.

  • Deliberate on Election Polls and Deal with Complaints

    The NESDC monitors election surveys to ensure they comply with the Public Official Election Act. Also, it deals with written complaints about the accuracy or credibility of the polls.

• Formation

  The NESDC is a permanent organization under the NEC. As well as at the national level, survey deliberation commissions have also been created under each Si/Do election commission.

• Organization

  The NESDC is under the NEC and 17 Si/Do level survey deliberation commissions are under each Si/Do election commission. The NESDC has nine Commissioners and are designated by the NEC. Each party with a negotiation group in the National Assembly (at least 20 seats, currently three parties) recommends one member, and the other Commissioners are chosen from among a group of scholars, law experts and polling experts.
  
  The Chairperson is then elected from among the commissioners at the first meeting of the commission. The commissioners serve terms of three years.

• Rights

  The NESDC has the authority to gain access to sites related to any poll-related crimes, to demand the submission of any relevant materials, to summon those related to any violation, to take measures on the spot to prevent crimes, and to take possession of evidence from the crime scene. The NESDC also has the sole right to register agencies or organizations to undertake election polls whose results are planned to be released.

• Key Regulations Related to Election Surveys
  • Prohibited Election Polls

    Anyone is prohibited from conducting election polls under the name of any candidate or political party or using mock ballots from 60 days prior to election day until election day.

  • Poll Blackout Period

    Anybody is forbidden from publishing or announcing election results from six days before the election until the close of voting.

  • Advance Notice of Polling

    Any election surveys, apart from those conducted or commissioned by registered political parties or a certain range of news media, should be reported to the NESDC two days before they are conducted.

  • Poll Registration

    Researchers should register the necessary information such as results, survey methods, client name, response rates and sampling error on the NESDC website before releasing or reporting the results.